Our earthquake prediction for the Great Reno Quake:Sunday, May 4, 2008, 5:07 PM Pacific Time
Magnitude 7.2
Epicenter in the Mogul/Somerset area, very shallow quake, damage to Reno area.
Our prediction recorded at the UK Skeptics Forum Earthquake Prediction Thread (see post number 9)
Link to Post Number 9
Results of our prediction:
A microearthquake occurred at 5:07:26 PM (PDT) on Sunday, May 4, 2008. The magnitude 1.1 event occurred 4 km (2 miles) N of Verdi-Mogul, NV. The hypocentral depth is 0 km (0.0 miles). Everything was right but the magnitude. Bottom line, our prediction was wrong! No one can predict a big quake with absolute certainty. There have been about 25 small quakes in the last 24 hours leading up to 5:07 pm today. Not the big one we thought was coming. Reno remains vulnerable for a 6 or 7 Mag quake till May 12, 2008 but we continue praying it won't happen.
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Jim Berkland ("the man who predicts earthquakes") May 4-11, 2008 prediction:
The Seismic Window of May 4-11, 2008 is based upon the New Moon of May 5th, and the very close perigee just 15 hours later. This Perigean Spring tide is one of only four this year and the Golden Gate maximum daily range in tides will be twice normal (8.6 ft. on May 7). I am 80% confident that one or more quakes will hit during this window with the following parameters:
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W).
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W).
(3) 3.3-6.3M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4) 7.0+M major event globally, most likely within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the world’s strongest quakes occur annually. (Currently we have had 5 of the expected 16.)
The Seismic Window of May 4-11, 2008 is based upon the New Moon of May 5th, and the very close perigee just 15 hours later. This Perigean Spring tide is one of only four this year and the Golden Gate maximum daily range in tides will be twice normal (8.6 ft. on May 7). I am 80% confident that one or more quakes will hit during this window with the following parameters:
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles (2 degrees) of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W).
(2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W).
(3) 3.3-6.3M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon.
(4) 7.0+M major event globally, most likely within the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 80% of the world’s strongest quakes occur annually. (Currently we have had 5 of the expected 16.)
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